7 Conclusion

This report uses data on the prevalence of drug use, retail prices, and consumption patterns to generate country-level
consumption and retail expenditure estimates for cannabis, heroin, cocaine, and amphetamine-type substances. Inadequate
information is available for generating credible estimates for every country or making comparisons between 1998 and 2007,
but the estimates presented here offer an important starting place for future work and comparisons. Given the substantial
uncertainty of these figures, a range of estimates is provided rather than one specific number.
Surprisingly little is known about typical quantities consumed of illicit drugs, which makes generating demand-side estimates
difficult. Fortunately, there are some simple actions that could be taken to improve understanding of both consumption
patterns and retail expenditures. While the most obvious action would be to include new survey modules about purchases
and quantity consumed, adding new sections to surveys can be expensive, burdensome, or both. However, adding only four
questions per substance of interest to the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD) or to the
general household surveys would dramatically improve the precision of country-specific demand-side estimates, especially
for cannabis: 1) How many days did you use “Drug X” in the previous month? 2) On the last day you used “Drug X”, how
much did you use? 3) Was this amount more than, less than, or the same as what you typically use on a typical use day? and
4) How much would it cost to purchase that amount?
Another mechanism for improving the consumption and retail expenditure estimates would be for the EMCDDA to collect
information about quantity consumed from the National Focal Points (REITOX) for a forthcoming annual report. The Focal
Points could report their best estimates of the typical quantity consumed for light and heavy users for a variety of substances.
Related to this, a few questions could be added to the UNODC’s Annual Review Questionnaire about typical quantities
consumed and whether this amount was in pure or raw grams. Even if this information is imperfect, it would improve
country-level consumption and retail expenditure estimates for illicit drugs.
States and sub-state jurisdictions should also consider implementing arrestee-based surveys similar to the Arrestee Drug Abuse
Monitoring (ADAM) programs that have been adopted in a handful of countries (e.g., Australia, New Zealand, UK, South
Africa, and the United States). These surveys generate information about consumption patterns and market activities among
heavy users that are often missed in school-based and general population surveys, especially for hard drugs like heroin and
cocaine. This would improve knowledge about heavy drug users who are not in the treatment population as well as serve as
an early warning system for new substances of abuse. Additionally, work by Abt (2001) and Brecht et al. (2003) demonstrates
that arrestee drug use data from sub-state jurisdictions, in conjunction with traditional arrest statistics, can be used to generate
state and national estimates of hard drug users. This information form arrestee is useful for sizing the market as well as
improving estimates of other important indicators (e.g., actual and potential demand for treatment).