Drug Abuse

Article 12

ADMINISTRATION OF THE ESTIMATE SYSTEM

General comments

1.   The estimate system is used for determining the maximum quantities of narcotic drugs which each country or territory may under the Single Convention obtain by manufacture or import or both.   It is provided for in articles 12, 19 and 21 and in article 31, paragraph 1, subparagraph (b). 1   It is supplemented by a system of statistical returns by which the Board and each Government can establish whether these supply limits have been exceeded by a particular country or territory.   Provision for statistics is made in articles 13 and 20. 2

2.   The estimate system of the Single Convention is basically the same as that of the narcotics regime preceding that treaty. a   It differs from the earlier provisions mainly by the inclusion of coca leaves and cannabis drugs (cannabis, cannabis resin, extracts and tinctures of cannabis). 4   It also did not take over the provision of the 1953 Protocol concerning the estimates of the area to be cultivated of the opium poppy for the production of opium, and of the expected opium harvest. 5

1 See also article 27, para. 2 and the supplementary transitional provisions of article 49, paras. 3 and 4.

2 See also article 2, para. 9, subpara. (b), article 27, para. 2 and article 49. paras. 3 and 4.

3. Articles 2 to 9, article 12, para. 2 and article 14 of the 1931 Convention, article 22 of the 1925 Convention, article 13 of the 1931 Convention, articles 1 and 2 of the 1948 Protocol and articles 8 and 9 of the 1953 Protocol; see also article 21 of the 1925 Convention.

4 The estimate system was extended to opium requirements by the 1953 Protocol

5 Article 8, para. 3 of the 1953 Protocol.

Paragraph 1

1.   The Board shall fix the date or dates by which, and the manner in which, the estimates as provided in article 19 shall be furnished and shall prescribe the forms therefor.

Commentary

1. The Board may fix different dates for different drugs. However at the time of this writing, it has fixed a single date for all estimates of drug requirements to be furnished under the Single Convention, namely 1 August of the year preceding that to which they refer. 1   The date that the Board may determine need not be the date of dispatch, but may be the date by which the estimates must reach the Board.   The Board has in fact prescribed that 1 August should be the date of receipt of the estimates.   The Board may change the dates which it has fixed pursuant to this paragraph.   If it takes such action, it should do so in time to enable Governments to make the required adjustments in their procedures for the establishment of the estimates without undue administrative difficulties.

2.   The Board may determine the ' -manner" in which the estimates must be furnished. It requires that the estimates should be prepared on the forms which it furnishes to Governments . 2   It may give detailed instructions regarding the completion of these forms. 3   It may also prescribe the way by which the estimates should be sent, e.g. that estimates which are not handed over to the secretariat of the Board by members of delegations or by messengers should be sent by registered air mail.

3. The Board should furnish Governments in time with a sufficient number of copies of the form or forms whose use it requires in order to enable them to comply with the time-limit which it has fixed.   Governments should inform the secretariat of the Board of the number of copies which they need.

4.   Not only the annual estimates, but also the supplementary estimates, 4 must be furnished on forms which have been prepared by the Board and whose use it prescribes.   Governments should therefore keep a reserve stock of such forms.

5.   The commentary to the 1931 Convention states in its observations on the provision of that treaty corresponding to article 12, paragraph 1, of the Single Convention that "an estimate which is not furnished on the prescribed form and which does not contain the particulars required by that form is not, strictly speaking, an estimate in the sense of the Convention". 5 For provisions of earlier treaties corresponding to article 12, paragraph 1, of the Single Convention, see article 5, paragraph 1, of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 4 of the 1953 Protocol.

6.   For more details of implementation of article 12, paragraph 1 by the Board, see its form B/S (6th edition, March 1970).

1 Form B/S (6th edition, March 1970), p. 3 of the International Narcotics Control Board.   The Board has fixed as date for the annual estimates of opium production to be furnished under article 8, para. 3 of the 1953 Protocol, 30 June of the year preceding that to which they refer; see form B/4 of the International Narcotics Control Board. Under article 8, para. 4, subpara. (b) of the 1953 Protocol in connexion with article 45, para. 2 of the Single Convention the Board has authority to fix the date by which the estimates of opium requirements and those of opium production must reach the Board. The Board continues to request under this Protocol estimates of opium production but not those of opium requirements.   The Single Convention does not provide for estimates of opium production; it requires Parties to furnish estimates of opium requirements as of other drugs. The former Permanent Central Board had no authority to determine the date by which the estimates of drug requirements under the 1931 Convention had to be furnished.   This Convention itself fixed 1 August of the year preceding that to which the estimates referred as date by which the estimates had to reach that organ; see article 5, para. 4 of the 1931 Convention.   The International Narcotics Control Board, performing the functions of the former Permanent Central Board under the 1931 Convention, is bound by this provision in respect to estimates furnished under this Convention; see also form E/S of the International Narcotics Control Board for the "Annual estimates of requirements of narcotics drugs for other than medical or scientific purposes" to be furnished under article 49, para. 3, subpara. (b) of the Single Convention.

2 Article 19, para. 1, introductory paragraph.

3. See the "instructions" on form B/S referred to in foot-note

4. Article 19, para. 3; see also article 12, paras. 4 and 5.

5 Commentary, para. 41, p. 74.

Paragraph 2

2.   The Board shall, in respect of countries and territories to which this Convention does not apply, request the Governments concerned to furnish estimates in accordance with the provisions of this Convention.

Commentary

1.   It is the purpose of the estimate system to limit the narcotics supplies of each country and territory to the quantities which it needs for its medical and scientific use, for the maintenance of adequate 1 stocks, and for legitimate exports, and thus to eliminate to the greatest extent possible the danger that persons engaged in the legal drug trade may divert surplus quantities into illicit channels. In order to be fully effective, this system of national and territorial limitation must be supplemented by a world-wide limitation of narcotics supplies to legitimate requirements. 2 The estimates of the drug requirements of each country and territory must be viewed by the Board in the light of the requirements of other countries and territories, and indeed of the world as a whole.   The Commentary on the 1931 Convention calls the estimate system of that treaty, which is basically the same as that of the Single Convention, "a planned economy on a world scale". 3   It may be added that this "planned economy" is based essentially on voluntary co-operation of Governments, fortified by such powers of persuasion as may be applied by suggestions, observations and critical remarks of the Board concerning the estimates of Governments which it is called upon to examine. 4   There is at present in fact no significant diversion of drugs under the international narcotics regime from legal manufacture and wholesale trade into illicit channels.

2.   The need for universal application of the estimate system explains why the Single Convention requires the Board to request the Governments of countries and territories to which it does not apply to furnish estimates in accordance with its provisions. Such a country and territory has also an interest in complying with this request, because the Board may otherwise establish the estimates of its drug requirements, e and thus the upper limits of its drug imports. c Parties to the Single Convention will not export to the country or territory concerned quantities of drugs exceeding these limits. While the country or territory  in question may, by furnishing supplementary estimates, 8 modify the estimates originally established by the Board and thus increase the quantities which it may import, the need for taking such action may delay its acquisition of medicines which it may urgently need.

3.   The Board must request that the estimates be furnished "in accordance with the provisions of this Convention", i.e. that they be sent by the date which it has fixed, be furnished in the manner and on the form or forms which it has prescribed therefor, 9 and contain the data which article 19 requires. 10

4.   The term "country" as used in paragraph 2 means a State as a whole, and the term "territory" means any part of a State" "treated as separate entity for the application of the system of import certificates and export authorizations provided for in article 31". 11   A State which has not become a Party pursuant to articles 40 and 41 (or in accordance with generally recognized rules of state succession) is thus a "country" "to which this Convention does not apply". A "territory" 12 to which the paragraph under consideration applies is one which is either identical with a "territory" in the sense of article 42, or a part of such a "territory" to which a State is not required to apply the Single Convention either because it is not a Party or because it is not bound to do so under the terms of article 42. 13

5.   The Board should each year address to the Governments concerned the request to furnish estimates.   It should send a reminder to each Government which fails to comply with this request in time.

6.   For provisions of earlier treaties corresponding to paragraph 2 of article 12, see article 2, paragraph 3 of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 8 of the 1953 Protocol.

1 Article 29, para. 3 and article 30, para. 2, subpara. (a) of the Single Convention.

2 Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 24, p. 53 and para. 30, p. 61.

3. Ibid., para. 24, p. 54.

4. Article 12, paras. 4-6 and article 15.

5 Article 12, para. 3.

6. Article 21, para. 1

7. Article 31, para. 1, subpara. (b) and article 21, para. 4

8 Article 19, para. 3, and article 12, paras. 4 and 5

9. Article 12, para. 1.

10. See also Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 33, p. 63.

11. Article 1, para. 1, subpara. (y); see above, comments on this subpara.   The effect of article 12, para. 2 would, however, not be changed if the word "country" were understood in the sense of "metropolitan country", i.e. of a "territory" in which the seat of the central national Government is located

12. I.e. within the meaning of article 1, para. 1, subpara. (y).

13. See below, comments on that article, see also above, comments on article 1, para. 1, subpara. (y).

Paragraph 3

3.   If any State fails to furnish estimates in respect of any of its territories by the date specified, the Board shall, as far as possible, establish the estimates. The Board in establishing such estimates shall to the extent practicable, do so in co-operation with the Government concerned.

Commentary

1.   The Board is required under paragraph 3 to establish estimates for:
(i) Any State, whether a Party to the Single Convention or not, which has failed to furnish its estimates in time and which is not divided into separate entities for the application of the system of import certificates and export authorizations, i.e. into territories in the sense of article 1, paragraph 1, subparagraph (y); 1
(ii) Any "territory" in the sense of that subparagraph for which the Government concerned has failed to furnish estimates in time, whether or not that territory belongs to a Party to the Single Convention, and whether or not it is identical with, or a part of, a "non-metropolitan territory" within the meaning of article 42 to which the Party concerned is not required to apply the Convention, in accordance with article 42. 2
2. The Board is required to establish estimates under paragraph 3 only "as far as possible". The same qualifying phrase was used by the 1931 Convention in reference to the obligation of the Drug Supervisory Body which preceded the International Narcotics Control Board in this matter-to establish estimates for countries or territories for which the Governments concerned had failed to furnish them in accordance with that Convention . 3 It was intended to relieve the Drug Supervisory Body from the obligation to establish estimates under the 1931 Convention in cases in which it was unable to do so on account of technical considerations. The Supervisory Body, however, found it possible to establish estimates in practically all cases in which they had not been furnished by the Governments in question, with the exception of that part of the estimates which related to stocks. 4
3.   The Single Convention uses the same phrase as the 1931 Convention, likewise for the purpose of relieving the International Narcotics Control Board from the obligation to establish estimates if it is unable to do so for technical reasons.   The present Board has, however, at its disposal an extensive amount of data concerning the drug requirements of practically all countries and territories in the world, and in any event much more relevant data than the Drug Supervisory Body had when it commenced its work after the 1931 Convention came into force in 1933. The Board will therefore only very rarely find it impossible to establish adequate estimates of the narcotics requirements of any particular country or territory, and especially estimates of the quantities of drugs needed for medical consumption. 5   However-as the Supervisory Body also found-the Board may still find it sometimes difficult to establish satisfactory estimates of the narcotics stocks which a particular territory should hold on December 31 of the year to which the estimates refer. It will therefore not infrequently refrain from establishing stock estimates.
4.   When computing the estimates, the Board will of course be guided by the interests of public health in the country or territory concerned.   It will ensure that the estimates which it establishes enable the country or territory involved to import sufficient quantities of drugs for its medical needs.6   The Board will be guided by the same considerations as the Government in question would be if it had prepared its own estimates.
5.   The Board bases its computation on such data as past consumption figures and the quantities of stocks held in preceding years.   It also takes into account any exports which the country or territory involved may have effected in recent times. The growth rate of drug consumption indicated by the statistical figures is also a relevant factor.   In computing the estimates of the stocks, the Board pays attention to the geographic location of the territory concerned and to the means of transportation which connect it with its normal sources of supply.   The Board also includes in its calculation of the estimates a safety margin to allow for possible fluctuations in demand.
6.   The Board will, however, never establish estimates of the quantities of drugs necessary for addition to "special stocks", 7 i.e. to stocks held for special Government purposes, in particular for the needs of the armed forces, and to meet exceptional circumstances such as large-scale epidemics and major earthquakes. 8 It not only appears to be precluded from taking such action by the purposes of the provisions of the Single Convention concerning "special stocks", 9 but would also be unable to compute appropriate figures.
7.   The Board is required to establish the estimates under paragraph 3 "to the extent practicable" "in co-operation with the Government concerned". It is the practice of the Board to send through its secretariat reminders to those Governments which have failed to furnish their estimates in time. It customarily establishes the estimates under paragraph 3 at the same session at which it examines the annual estimates 10 of those Governments which have furnished them in compliance with their treaty obligation or with the Board's request. 11 It would generally hardly be practicable for the Board to seek at this session the co-operation of a Government which, despite a reminder, has failed to supply its estimates by that time.   There is not enough time for such action during the session at which the Board must review the drug requirements of all countries and territories in the world.   Moreover, the reply of a Government whose co-operation was sought at this moment would generally arrive only after the end of the session.
8.   A Government can modify by supplementary estimates" any estimates either those which it has furnished itself or those which the Board has established in respect of any of its territories under paragraph 3. The Government's supplementary estimates achieve this effect whether or not they are expressly called "supplementary" in the document containing them or in the letter or note accompanying the document. The Board may change, by supplementary estimates, those estimates which it has established itself, but never those which a Government has sent. Alteration of Government estimates would amount to an amendment, which the Board may make only with the consent of the Government which has furnished the estimates. 13
9. The Board is required to establish estimates for any territory in respect of which the Government concerned has failed to furnish them "by the date specified". This date is the date fixed by the Board for this purpose pursuant to article 12, paragraph 1.   The Board is, however, relieved from its obligation to establish estimates and even has no right to do so if it has received estimates from the Government concerned after the date specified but before it has itself established them.   The Government's estimates, which whenever received have the effect of modifying estimates already established by the Board, must a fortiori preclude their establishment.
10. Paragraph 3 of article 12 does not apply if a Government has furnished incomplete estimates omitting, for example, figures for drugs which it obviously needs, but only if it has failed to furnish them altogether.   Calling the attention of the Government to the missing data would be the remedy in such a case and not the establishment of estimates by the Board.
11. A document called "estimates" which the Board receives from a Government and which cannot be considered to be estimates in the sense of the Single Convention may, however, be disregarded by the Board; this would be the case, for example if the estimates for a territory which does not manufacture, but imports its requirements are nil for all drugs because the author of the document erroneously assumed that the estimates required were estimates of the drugs to be manufactured. 14 If the Board establishes in such a case estimates under paragraph 3, it acts in the interest of such a territory, which would otherwise not be entitled to import drugs which it might urgently need, and might in fact be unable to do so.   The Government of that territory can moreover at any time substitute its own estimates for those framed by the Board.   All estimates containing nil entries for all drugs on the forms 15 on which they are furnished should call for action by the Board under paragraph 3.
12. For provisions of earlier treaties corresponding to that paragraph, see article 2, paragraphs 2 and 3 of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 9 of the 1953 Protocol.

1 For the meaning of the term "territory" as including, in article 12, para. 3, such undivided States, see above, comments on article 1, para. 1, subpara. (y).

2. See below comments on article 42.

3. Article 2, paras. 2 and 3 of the 1931 Convention; article 8, para. 9 of the 1953 Protocol uses the phrase "as far as practicable" when limiting similarly the obligation of the Drug Supervisory Body to establish opium estimates.

4. Commentary on the 1931 Convention, paras. 30 and 31, pp. 62 and 63; see article 5, para. 2, first subpara., clauses (c) and (d) and second subpara. of the 1931 Convention; see also article 19, para. 1, subparas. (c) and (d) of the Single Convention.

5. Article 19, para. 1, subpara. (a).

6. Article 21, para. 1.

7. Article 19, para. 1, subpara. (d).

8 Form B/S of the International Narcotics Control Board (6th edition, March 1970), instruction 13; article 1, para. 1, subpara. (w) of the Single Convention; and above comments on this subpara. and subpara. (x) of article 1, para. 1.

9 Article 12, para. 4, article 13, para. 4, article 19, para. 1, subpara. (d), article 20, para. 4 and article 21, para. 1, subpara. (e); see also article 1, para. 1, subpara. (w).

10 Article 19.

11 Article 12, para. 2.

12 Article 19, para. 3.

13 Article 12, para. 5; see comments on article 19, para. 3; see also Commentary on the 1931 Convention (para. 35, p. 65), in which the same view is expressed in respect of supplementary estimates established by the Permanent Central Board under that treaty.   To grant the International Narcotics Control Board the right to revise, by supplementary estimates, estimates which it has established itself, is in the interest of the country or territory which has failed to furnish estimates.   Its failure to do this may be due to lack of experienced officials, and the Board's right to revise the estimates which it established might prevent difficulties which such a country or territory might have in obtaining needed drug supplies.   It is, however, admitted that the view expressed in this commentary to the Single Convention cannot easily be reconciled with article 19, para. 3, which provides for supplementary estimates by States; but the Commentary on the 1931 Convention holds the same view although this latter treaty (article 3) provides only for supplementary estimates by Parties.

14 See also Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 30, p. 62.

15 Article 12, para. 1 and article 19, para. 1; small territories which do not manufacture, nor engage in the wholesale trade in drugs, but cover all their require ments by imports of retail pharmacists may be an exception; see below, comments on article 19, para. 1, subpara. (a) and subpara. (c).

Paragraph 4

4.   The Board shall examine the estimates, including supplementary estimates, and, except as regards requirements for special purposes may require such information as it considers necessary in respect of any country or territory on behalf of which an estimate has been furnished, in order to complete the estimate or to explain any statement contained therein.

Commentary

l.   The purpose of the examination of the estimates by the Board is to ensure as far as possible that they are neither overestimates nor underestimates, and thus to achieve the aim of the estimate system of the Single Convention, i.e. to limit the narcotics supplies of each country and territory and of the world as a whole to the quantities required for medical and scientific needs. The Board has at its disposal for this task a great amount of official information supplied by Governments to it, to its predecessors, the Permanent Central Board and Drug Supervisory Body, to the Commission on Narcotic Drugs or to the Secretary-General, such as statistical figures on all phases of the narcotics trade (including consumption), estimates for the preceding years and other relevant data which may have been included in the annual reports which Governments must furnish to the Secretary-General under article 18, paragraph 1, subparagraph (a). The Single Convention does not lay down any criteria which the Board must or may apply in its examination of the estimates. It is, however, submitted that the Board could not effectively play its role in the limitation of narcotics supplies to the quantities needed for medical and scientific purposes if it were guided solely by statistical considerations.   The Board is granted considerable discretion in determining the scope of its inquiry, as is indicated by the provision authorizing it to require such information "as it considers necessary" "in order to complete the estimate or to explain any statement contained therein".
2. In carrying out its functions, the Board must ensure that its administration of the estimate system does not cause Governments undue difficulties in providing themselves with drugs which they need for medical purposes. 1   It is for this reason also that the Board must try to prevent underestimates, which may create such problems for countries or territories which furnish them. In determining the figures the Board should, in the case of countries and territories which import their narcotic drugs, allow a wider margin for those of them which are distant from sources of supply than for those which are near to these sources. 2
3. The Board may obtain the information which it needs not only from Governments, but also from intergovernmental organizations such as the World Health Organization and from the Secretary-General of the United Nations.   It may take into account not only information received from the Government whose estimates it examines, but also data obtained from other Governments.   The restriction of article 14, paragraph 1, subparagraph (a) on the kind of information on the basis of which the Board may act does not apply to article 12, paragraphs 4-6 or article 13, paragraphs 2 and 3. The Board may, however, in no case base its action on non-official information such as newspaper reports.
4.   It is of particular importance to the Board to know exactly the method which a Government uses for calculating its estimates. The Convention provides therefore that the method employed and any changes therein shall be communicated to the Board. s Governments often omit from the documents containing their estimates an indication of this method, or at least a sufficiently accurate description of it, although the form which the Board prescribes for the estimates 4 expressly requests this information. a Many inquiries of the Board under paragraph 4 relate to this method.
5.   A number of factors determine the extent of the consumption of narcotic drugs, and are therefore subjects on which the Board may require information under paragraph 4, e.g. the size and character, in particular age structure, of the population, the extent and kind of health facilities available to the population, climatic conditions, and epidemiological and other health data.
6.   It may moreover be pointed out that the estimate system is only one of important elements of the international narcotics regime, all of which are interdependent for their effectiveness in achieving the aims of the Convention.   The estimate system cannot adequately function without an appropriate application of the provisions of the Single Convention regarding licensing 6 and import certificates and export authorizations. 7 It is submitted that it was not the intention of the authors of the Single Convention to limit the remedies available to the Board for violations of treaty provisions of this kind to application of sanctions under article 14, or to critical comments in its reports pursuant to article 15.   A persistent discrepancy between, on the one hand, the manufacturing and import statistics of a particular country or territory and, on the other hand, its limits authorized in accordance with its estimates, may often result in whole or in part from other circumstances than its use of an unsatisfactory method for calculating its estimates. Its failure to apply correctly other provisions of the Single Convention than those referring directly to the estimate system may explain such a discrepancy; thus, a failure to apply the rules on licensing and on import and export authorizations so as to enforce a regime of monopoly or oligopoly, or in order to enforce quotas for manufacture or import of drugs, may result in a malfunctioning of the estimate system of the country or territory concerned. A dispersion of the national functions required for the implementation of the estimate system among several government departments, without co-ordination by a "special administration" as required under article 17 of the Single Convention, may have the same effect. If the Board is to carry out properly its examination of estimates pursuant to article 12, paragraph 4, it must pay attention to such cases of defective treaty execution, which are consequently proper subjects of its inquiries under this provision, and which-it may be added-will quite often be corrected by suggestions which the Board may make in its correspondence with the Government in question.   In any event, the fact that the International Narcotics Control Board has taken over the functions of both the Permanent Central Board and the Drug Supervisory Body under the earlier treaties offers the new Board an opportunity to give to the examination of the estimates a greater scope than when this task was performed by the Supervisory Body pursuant to the 1931 Convention 8 and 1953 Protocol. 9
7.   The range of subjects on which the Board may require Governments to furnish information under article 12, paragraph 4 is, however, by no means unlimited.   It covers only such matters as may be relevant in respect to the functioning of the estimate system; but this may in principle include the implementation of most 1° provisions of the Single Convention.
8.   It may be mentioned here that the Board employs its authority under paragraph 4 with prudence, and that Governments of Parties and non-Parties to the Single Convention alike usually respond to the Board's inquiries in good faith. The authority of the Board to make a particular inquiry has hardly ever been questioned on legal grounds. These friendly relations are guided by the requirements of co-operation in the field of drug control, and not by a strict application of the letter of the law.
9.   The term "special purposes" means "special Government purposes and to meet exceptional circumstances" for which the so-called "special stocks" are held. 11   The "special Government purposes" include in particular the needs of the armed forces.   The drugs involved are only those held by the Government for such purposes. Governments are required to furnish estimates of the quantities of drugs necessary for addition to "special stocks". 12 These estimates, the actual additions and the "special stocks" themselves are excluded from the scope of inquiry under paragraph 4. 13 The Board may only request a Government which holds "special stocks" and which has failed to furnish estimates of the additions to such stocks to supply these estimates, but may not question the figures given by the Government on this matter whatever they may be, even if the figure is "zero". The exclusion of the "requirements for special purposes" is explained by the fact that the authors of the Single Convention did not intend to apply the narcotics regime to special stocks and the drugs included in them, as long as they are used for "special Government purposes and to meet exceptional circumstances". 14 The Convention requires Governments to furnish to the Board only such data 15 on this subject as are necessary to prevent a gap in the estimates and statistics which the Board receives, and to enable that organ to strike a balance in its statistical calculations.
10. As regards provisions of earlier treaties corresponding to article 12, paragraph 4 of the Single Convention, see article 5, paragraph 6 of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 7 of the 1953 Protocol.

1. It is for this reason that article 12, para. 5 requires the Board to act expeditiously on estimates, including supplementary estimates, furnished by Governments.

2 Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 73, p. 120.

3 Article 19, para. 4.   As regards non-Parties, see this connexion with article 12, para. 2.

4. Article 12, para. 1 and article 19, para. 1, introductory subparagraph.

5 Form B/S (6th edition, March 1970), p. 3.

6. Article 29, paras. 1 and 2 and article 30, para. 1; the institution of State enterprises may substitute for the licensing of manufacture and trade.

7. Article 31, paras. 4-14.

8 Article 5, para. 6.

9 Article 8, para. 7.

10 The provisions of article 38 (treatment of drug addicts) are among the few which may never be relevant in this connexion.

11 For the meaning of these phrases under quotation marks see above comments on article 1, para. 1, subparas. (w) and (x).

12 Article 19, para. 1, subpara. (d).

13 See also article 20, para. 4.

14 Article 1. para. 1, subpara. (w).

15 Article 19, para. 1, subpara. (d) and article 20, para. 4.

Paragraphs 5 and 6

5. The Board shall as expeditiously as possible confirm the estimates, including supplementary estimates, or, with the consent of the Government concerned, may amend such estimates.
6.   In addition to the reports mentioned in article 15, the Board shall, at such times as it shall determine but at least annually, issue such information on the estimates as in its opinion will facilitate the carrying out of this Convention.

Commentary

1.   Paragraph 5 provides for two different actions which the Board may take on estimates, including supplementary estimates, after having examined them.   The Board may confirm them, or may amend them with the consent of the Government concerned.
2.   The annual estimates are examined and confirmed or amended by the Board at its ordinary session in the autumn preceding the calendar year to which they relate. Estimates which arrive too late to be dealt with at this session, and which concern a country or territory for which the Board has not established the estimates pursuant to article 12, paragraph 3, may be placed on the agenda of the following session, or submitted to a vote by mail or telegraph, the choice of the course of action depending on the date of their arrival and their degree of urgency. Late annual estimates which refer to a country or territory for which the Board has already established the estimates have the effect of supplementary estimates. 1
3.   The Board may, at its ordinary session in autumn, also deal with supplementary estimates for the current year, as well as for the calendar year following the session. 2   The Board cannot, however, take action on estimates received after the end of the year to which they refer.   Such supplementary estimates are without effect. 3
4.   Paragraph 5 prescribes that the Board's action should be taken "as expeditiously as possible". The need for speed is explained by the considerations that the estimates determine the quantities of drugs which a country or territory may obtain by manufacture or import or both, a and that a Government must know as early as possible what these quantities are in order to be able to take the required administrative measures. The need for speed in handling supplementary estimates may be particularly evident if those estimates would enable the country or territory concerned to increase its supply limits, and thus to obtain additional drugs for which no provision has been made in the original estimates but which may be urgently required for medical purposes.   If such supplementary estimates arrive at a time at which the Board is not in session nor scheduled to meet very shortly, it may be necessary to submit them to a vote by mail or even by telegraph, or if they concern only very minor quantities, to leave the examination and decision to the Board's secretariat, which may obtain authority from the Board to do so. 5
5.   Estimates, including supplementary estimates furnished by Governments, come into force when they have been confirmed by the Board, or if amended by that organ, when the amendment has been accepted or rejected by the Government concerned.   Estimates established by the Board enter into force at the moment at which they are adopted. This means, first, that estimates other than those established by the Board, once they have come into force, cannot again be taken up by the Board for examination and confirmation or amendment, i.e. cannot be revised, unless the Government concerned furnishes supplementary estimates; second, that such estimates, whether furnished by a Government or established by the Board itself, 6 create for Parties to the Single Convention whose estimates are involved the legal obligation to arrange for the consequential limitation of their manufacture or import of the drugs in question, or both; 7 and third that other Parties are bound to respect import limits 8 based on these estimates.
6.   The Parties must comply with this legal obligation from the date at which they obtain the knowledge of the relevant figures, i.e. in the case of estimates which have been amended by the Board, from the moment at which they dispatch to that organ their acceptance or rejection, and in any event in the case of all estimates from the time at which they receive from the Board the required data. Pending the procedure before the Board pursuant to article 12, paragraph 4 and 5, a Government should also not take measures contrary to its own estimates, even though they are not yet in force, unless it dispatches to the Board amending or supplementary estimates prior to that organ's decision under paragraph 5.
7.   While the Board may not formally re-examine in accordance with article 12, paragraphs 4 and 5, estimates in force other than those which it has itself established c unless the Government concerned has furnished supplementary estimates, the Board does not appear to be precluded by any provision of the Single Convention from making at any time 9 informal suggestions to any Government in regard to the desirability of a reconsideration of that Government's estimates.
8.   Since Governments may reject amendments made by the Board to their estimates, and may by subsequent (supplementary) estimates replace both estimates which they themselves have furnished as well as those which the Board has established, they are legally the final masters of their estimates, and thus of the quantities of drugs which they may manufacture and import. They are, however, in this connexion subject to various measures of persuasion applied in the interest of the family of nations as a whole, such as amendments proposed by the Board for their acceptance, or less formal suggestions and critical comments of that organ which may be contained in communications addressed to them or published pursuant to article 12, paragraph 6 or article 15. This has in practice proved to be an effective system of moral control, 1° as the experience of the International Narcotics Control Board and of its predecessor, the Drug Supervisory Body, has shown. Amendments which the Board makes are generally accepted and revisions which it proposes informally are mostly accepted by the Governments concerned.
9.   Paragraph 6 requires that the Board shall issue, at such times as it shall determine but at least annually such information as in its opinion will facilitate the implementation of the Single Convention.   As has been indicated earlier, the Board must in particular inform Governments of the estimates and their total 11 in force in respect of each country and territory in order to enable them to observe their own limits of manufacture and import, as well as to respect the import limits of other countries or territories.   Since the estimates must be furnished annually, paragraph 6 prescribes that the Board should issue this information at least once a year. 12   The Board therefore issues an annual statement of the estimated world requirements of narcotics drugs, which contains the estimates and their totals for each individual country and territory and for the world as a whole. 13 It prepares this statement at its ordinary session held in the autumn preceding the calendar year to which the annual estimates concerned refer. This statement should be-and is-published as expeditiously as possible, and in any event before the beginning of the calendar year in respect of which the estimates involved have been made.
10. Governments should plan their annual estimates so as to avoid the need for subsequent changes effected by supplementary estimates; but drug requirements are not always fully predictable, and may be affected by events, such as epidemics, which cannot be foreseen at the time at which the annual estimates are prepared. Governments may have to manufacture or import more drugs than have been provided for in their original annual estimates, and may therefore be compelled to furnish to the Board supplementary estimates. This happens quite frequently, although sometimes it would not happen if the annual estimates had been more carefully planned. The Board must therefore from time to time bring up to date some of the information contained in its annual statement in order to enable Governments to carry out their obligations regarding the limitation of the manufacture and import of narcotic drugs. 14   The Board therefore publishes each year four supplements to its annual statement of estimated world requirements of narcotic drugs.   But there are sometimes urgent cases in which a country or territory, on behalf of which supplementary estimates have been furnished to the Board, cannot delay the import of the drugs which it needs until the Government of the exporting country learns from the next quarterly supplement that the import limit of that country or territory has been raised.   At the request of the Government of the country or territory which needs the drugs urgently, the Board in such a case informs, by letter and if necessary by telegram, the Government of the exporting country of the change in the import limit.
11. The information which the Board issues under paragraph 6 may, in addition to the estimates and their totals, also contain an account of any explanations given or requested in the course of the examination of the estimates pursuant to paragraph 4 and of any amendments proposed by the Board which were not accepted by the Governments concerned, and may further include any other observations which the Board considers would facilitate the carrying out of the Single Convention. 15 The annual statement may, but need not, form a part of or an addendum to the annual report or other reports which the Board issues pursuant to article 15.   The supplements to the annual statement may similarly be a part of or addenda to, additional reports which the Board is authorized to make under this article, though it has not yet made such additional reports.
12. For provisions of earlier treaties corresponding to article 12, paragraphs 5 and 6 of the Single Convention, see article 5, paragraphs 6-8 of the 1931 Convention and article 8, paragraph 7 of the 1953 Protocol.

1 See above, comments on article 12, para. 3.

2 As regards the admissibility of supplementary or amending estimates prior to 1 January of the calendar year to which the original estimates refer, see below, com ments on article 19, para. 3.

3 Article 19, para. 3 and comments thereon.

4. Article 21, paras. 1 and 2.

5 See above comments on article 11, para. 3.

6 See above, comments on article 12, para. 3.

7 Article 21, para. 1.

8 Article 31, para. 1, subpara. (b); see also article 21, para. 4.

9 But not after the end of the year to which the estimates involved refer; see article 19, para. 3 and comments thereto.

10 See Commentary on the 1931 Convention, para. 78, p. 122.

11 Article 19, para. 2 in connexion with article 21, paras. 3 and 4.

12 See also article 5, para. 7 of the 1931 Convention as amended by the 1946 Protocol.

13 See, e.g.,   E/INCB/6, United Nations publication, Sales No.    E.70.XI.1, entitled "Estimated world requirements of narcotic drugs and estimates of world production of opium in 1970".   The document contains also information on opium production in implementation of the 1953 Protocol; see article 8, para. 3 of the 1953 Protocol.   See on the other hand article 19 of the Single Convention, which does not provide for production estimates.

14 Article 21, para. 1, and article 31, para. 1, subpara. (b).

15 This additional information may also be included in the reports which the Board prepares under article 15.

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